![]() ![]() It was hard to know what drug regimes might help to combat the disease, and there were no vaccines. Lockdowns and masksĪs case numbers started to soar, countries’ options for reducing infections and deaths were very limited. But few countries followed this advice.Īt the same time, the epidemiological community also began turning its attention to evaluating measures that might help to contain the virus. These moves were based, in part, on research done by epidemiologists after previous infectious-disease outbreaks 7. The findings suggested that hospitals worldwide needed to prepare for a high number of admissions to intensive care.Īt the end of January, the World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, which included advice for countries on implementing public-health measures, including testing and isolating infected people, and tracing and quarantining their contacts. Taken together, these studies helped to alert many governments to the fact that the situation might be much more severe than they had anticipated. However, as more data became available, epidemiologists were able to confirm that the virus could be transmitted by people showing no symptoms 6 and that it had high pandemic potential 1. In these first weeks, researchers were working with limited patient data. Some estimates suggested that more than 1 in 10 of those over the age of 80 who became infected would not survive 5. Even early on, it was evident that the risk to people aged over 60 was substantially higher than that for younger age groups. This included its mean incubation period 4 - the time between a person getting infected and the onset of symptoms - and the proportion of people for whom the infection will be fatal 5. These studies found, for example, that the ‘ R 0’ rate - which describes the number of people an infected person will pass the virus on to, on average, if the virus is allowed to spread uncontrolled - to be between 2 and 4 2, 3 Studies also estimated crucial parameters for understanding the virus’s epidemic potential. By about the middle of January, epidemiologists began reporting the results of modelling studies, which indicated that case numbers were likely to be much higher 1 than had initially been documented. Initially, little was known about the virus’s transmissibility, but that quickly changed. By 20 January, the Chinese authorities had reported more than 200 infections and 3 deaths. ![]() By 5 January 2020, the virus was reported to have infected 59 people in the city of Wuhan in China’s Hubei province 7 were in a critical condition. It is now more than a year since reports began to emerge of a previously unknown coronavirus causing pneumonia-like symptoms. Epidemiology is changing the course of the pandemic, but the coronavirus has stress-tested epidemiology, too, and this report briefly explores how the field is changing as a result. We also highlight how epidemiology will be important as the pandemic progresses - for example, in understanding the potential impact of the new variants that are currently wreaking havoc around the world. This editorial - the third instalment in Nature’s series of pandemic progress reports - explores some of the key research developments that have helped to illuminate the nature of the infection and the scale of the pandemic. Many of these, such as locking down countries, imposing quarantines, and mandating social distancing and mask-wearing, are now commonplace. Analyses of data on infections and deaths, and projections from studies that model the virus’s spread, have driven policy decisions all over the world. The study of how diseases spread, and why, has loomed large in the struggle to understand, contain and respond to COVID-19. Credit: Chine Nouvelle/SIPA/ShutterstockĮpidemiology is essential to the fight against any disease. Measures such as mask-wearing have been used around the world to try to stop the spread of coronavirus. ![]()
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